Saxophones How will Tariffs affect Sax Prices?

[Pete Thomas]

With respect, that is how capitalism works.

Indeed that's exactly what I meant. However any retailer or distributor with a lot of pre-tariff stocks will be either able to sell at same price as those with post tariff stock with potentially double the gross profit, or they could undercut and still make a much larger gross profit than previously. It is capitalism. I wonder how many stocked up speculatively in advance, although would actually have to have received the goods through customs before the tariffs kicked in, not just placed orders.

 

[mizmar]

I wonder how many stocked up speculatively in advance

I don't know what the lead time is...
Maybe the well known brands with highschool and marching band supply contracts are prepared.
... But I suspect for the smaller scale "own brands" - some YouTubers, shops etc. who probably commission a fixed amount - it's a very long lead time and quite and investment - and they are going to really suffer sooner or later. I don't know if, for example Better Sax is counted as French? Will Jay be caught by Country of Origin?
And folks like that have already invested money and sweat in building factory and distribution relationships (in China)...
Maybe people like that will sell US stock (say in Sweetwater) at list price - because, well, Reputation - and then what? List an EU price half the US price?

 

[Pete Thomas]

for example Better Sax is counted as French?

Pourquoi? Aren't they made in China?

 

[mizmar]

Pourquoi? Aren't they made in China?

Jay is, as I understand it, based in France. But I don't know where the company is registered. But, yes, made in china - hence possible Country of Origin
But that's just an example. They are far from the only example.

 

[Pete Thomas]

But, yes, made in china - hence possible Country of Origin

That is the Country of Origin so I would assume US imports/sale will have a price hike, but there could be a very large existing markup that could absorb most of the tariff without affecting the final price much, and still be viable model for selling in the US, assuming most of the competition there will also be raising prices.

 

[mizmar]

large existing markup that could absorb most of the tariff

Maybe.
But that raises an interesting question.
For a Europe based company to absorb the (100% 125% or so , for Chinese country of origin) tariff means they sell wholesale at half the retail price, no? Maybe less if the $ weakens...
Then, if American customs compare US and RotW wholesale prices they could accuse the company of dumping or something...?

Also, consumer confidence. A massive price rise will certainly slow sales , maybe recovering in a year or two - which is a long time of small and medium companies. Some won't survive.

 

[Pete Thomas]

For a Europe based company to absorb the (100% or so , for Chinese country of origin) tariff means they sell wholesale at half the retail price, no?

If any Europe based company had significant US sales they may be better off just licensing their trademark to a US company to import direct from the factory, assuming the retail price could be 500% - 1000% more than the China factory price, depending on volume of sales and any custom or set up work carried out post import.

 

[jonf]

I don't know if, for example Better Sax is counted as French?

Definitely not, they're Chinese saxes, so will be caught by the highest level of tariffs.

 

[mizmar]

Definitely not, they're Chinese saxes, so will be caught by the highest level of tariffs.

We've been through the country of origin discussion several times. It probably applies 100% here. But in normal situations (like the example of cars I mentioned) it can be complicated / obfuscated... The devil can be in details we don't know.

 

[jonf]

We've been through the country of origin discussion several times. It probably applies 100% here. But in normal situations (like the example of cars I mentioned) it can be complicated / obfuscated... The devil can be in details we don't know.

I think the potential complications come when you have a sax with parts, or some element of manufacture, in a high-tariff country like China, but it then gets significant additional work in another territory. The 'Better Sax' brand, just like the Conn-Selmer Prelude, Jean-Paul ond so on, are just items entirely made in China and shipped as complete items.

 

[Pete Thomas]

it can be complicated / obfuscated...

It can be complicated but most countries have strict laws on how to define country of origin. I believe the US is different to Europe, possibly quite a lot stricter. I looked into this when researching the Cafesaxophone saxophone as I'd love to have said made in England which was possible if the body tube was made machined and engraved in Cheadle, keywork made in China, springs in the US and pads in Italy then all assembled in Cheadle then that is Made in England.

Under the current tariffs a similar process in the US could actually work. Even though I don't know if they could call it Made in the USA that is irrelevant to the current discussion. The biggest expense to making in the US would be the keywork, yet a very low percentage of the finished product if imported from China so the tariff would relatively low for the finished product.

The big problem with that model is the US semiskilled labour costs of fitting 3rd party Chinese potentially imprecise keywork to the body.

 

[mizmar]

most countries have strict laws on how to define country of origin

Most countries bring in tariffs through legislation, the appropriate departments, with carefully thought out terms.
But sure, there is some legislation and it might be applied normally.

I'm sure some people will find a way through. But I also wouldn't be surprised if some fold.. especially smaller concerns who might not be able to rebuild

 

[Targa]

Now it's all changed again with the tariffs suspended and a 10% import tax instead.
Except for China though probably that will change as well.

 

[mizmar]

Except for China though probably that will change as well.

It is notoriously difficult to work out probabilities for chaotic systems

 

[Woodpad]

It is notoriously difficult to work out probabilities for chaotic systems

Even chaos theory will not help here.

 

[thomsax]

Now we have to talk about saxophone prices in diffent tariff scenarios. 10%, 25%, 100%, 250% ...... . This is a "pseudo" topic ... we know what the problem is and we should not talk about it here on CS. In the country where I live the the saxophones/saxophonists are in decreasing. I have around 20 saxes that I can sell or give away, I just need two. I have pads and other things as well. The problem is how to find persons that want to play them.

 

[Woodpad]

The problem is how to find persons that want to play them.

If there is no market for saxophones occasions prices will go down while making new saxophones becomes more expensive due to smaller series. Last year there was only one new saxophonist in the first conservatorium year in the Netherlands. This is a steep decline after years of budget cuts on music education.

 

[ghostler]

This is a "pseudo" topic ... we know what the problem is and we should not talk about it here on CS.

There was some interest, and the CS moderation team is allowing any to discuss, as long as it does not turn into off-topic politics.

In the country where I live the saxophones/saxophonists are in decreasing. I have around 20 saxes that I can sell or give away, I just need two. I have pads and other things as well. The problem is how to find persons that want to play them.

I'm now in the process of finding homes for a few extra that I own. I don't quite have the stash that you do, but I count 8. Including clarinets and flute gives me 14. Here in US, it appears a good number of schools have discontinued band programmes - sad.

Where I went to intermediate school (grades 7-8) and high (grades 9-12) in rural Hawaii, then back in the latter 1960's to early 1970's, the school band programmes were well funded and any student could be issued a loaner instrument. We had our full compliment of saxes, alto's and tenor's. I don't remember if we had a bari. Now, been away long enough, don't know if they still maintain band programmes.

Then, teachers would pass onto us various instrument sales by music stores. There was no such thing as on-line, although one could buy off-brand saxes from catalogues like Sears, J.C. Penney, Montgomery Ward, etc. These were not sold in their "brick and mortar" stores.

Similar to "no-name" saxes from China, they sold inexpensive saxes, but our music teachers recommended we stay away from these as their possible lack of quality was suspect. (I never knew of anyone who bought these.)

If there is no market for saxophones occasions prices will go down while making new saxophones becomes more expensive due to smaller series. Last year there was only one new saxophonist in the first conservatorium year in the Netherlands. This is a steep decline after years of budget cuts on music education.

This seems to be very true in US as well. Clovis, NM is one of the few exceptions to this disturbing trend elsewhere in many places in US.

 

[MarkSax]

I think the 10% tariff into the US is here to stay for saxes not from China. Taiwan makes better stuff anyway. Might even be higher for saxes than for cars if the idea of re-industrialisation stays current. But a US made sax, if ever, is at least 5 to 10 years away.

 

[ghostler]

I think the 10% tariff into the US is here to stay for saxes not from China. Taiwan makes better stuff anyway. Might even be higher for saxes than for cars if the idea of re-industrialisation stays current. But a US made sax, if ever, is at least 5 to 10 years away.

I think you are very correct on the quality of Taiwanese saxes. I have a Le Blanc Vito tenor sax, appears to be a Jupiter stencil, very stout metal difficult to dent and plays well. I also have 2 Antigua Winds Taiwanese saxes. I don't know Antigua's history, but their quality seems on par with Jupiter.

When I got my new Venus Chinese made soprano sax (was off on date of acquisition of around 2014 since I've misplaced its receipt, but based on a 2012 Rico Graftonite B5 receipt I have, places my purchase shortly before it), was amazed at its workmanship. If made in US, would be definitely more than the $219 US that I paid for it. Labour costs were much, much lower than US.

I have not done any analysis to discern US labour costs, but could easily imagine that to make a reasonable (not overkilling) profit, would have to be priced IMO, say easily over $1,000 US.