Electric vehicles

[rhysonsax]

Do you fancy driving around with 50 litres of highly flammable petrol behind you?

Have a look: Hydrogen cars: new Government funding for fuel cell vehicles

This made me chuckle, in view of your comment:

"Ben Madden, from Element Energy consultancy and UK energy projects, told Auto Express: “Once we get to that point, we’d expect it to be easier to build stations and it will mushroom..."

I don't mind (although mine is a tank of diesel which is less flammable than petrol) as the fuel tank isn't under pressure.

Any thoughts on where the (elemental) hydrogen will come from, the efficiency of the process, the whole-life environmental impact of the vehicles and their fuel ?

I'm not saying hydrogen vehicles won't come in significant numbers, but the technology is not a panacea, there are downsides and my job requires me to be sceptical.

Don't get me started on autonomous road vehicles which scare me, particularly in the near future when there would be mixed driving (manned and unmanned vehicles together), dodgy technology, massive unknowns in terms of human behaviour. The autonomous vehicles would have to be not just "safer" than a human-driven vehicle, but almost accident-free or our glorious tabloid press will campaign to have them banned and their makers strung up from the nearest lamp-post.

Rhys

 

[Vetinari]

If you want to start your car send us some money. If not we will lock it for ever.....
We know where it is, we know where it has been, we have your telephone list, your home address, etc.

 

[Targa]

Just today watched a very interesting Horizon on driverless vehicles (on BBC iPlayer, those outside the U.K. may have trouble with that). 100M cars in the USA, parked 97% of the time. Call it a need for 6M vehicles, used as needed and they take themselves away to recharge - I kinda like the sound of that...

If that's the same one as I saw a few days ago did you notice that when the car successfully steered around the pedestrian crossing the road he was on a zebra crossing?
So the car's action was illegal, that is it should have stopped not run him over.
However all the road laws apply to drivers not vehicles so if a driverless car acted like cyclists do could anyone be prosecuted.

 

[Targa]

And do you fancy driving round with a high pressure tank of hydrogen next to you ?
Rhys

 

[Colin the Bear]

Don't panic. Don't Panic. They don't like it up em. Autonomous Electric cars? Isn't that "Scalextric"

 

[kevgermany]

The busses at Munich airport have been running on hydrogen for years. Sounds crazy, one incident and it's a disaster scenario.

I'm not sure which worries me more, there are plenty of accidents caused by humans, mm out of them in fact. There's no reason that driverless should be less safe than human drivers. Plenty of reasons why driverless can be safer.

 

[rhysonsax]

There's no reason that driverless should be less safe than human drivers. Plenty of reasons why driverless can be safer.

I profoundly disagree - every computerised system has to be specified, designed, built, tested and updated by (fallible) human beings. The environment cars have to operate in is hugely complex and uncontrolled. Look at the reliability of current software systems and then ask yourself whether you would be happy to have something like that controlling a life-critical bit of machinery.

If autonomous cars have to communicate with each other and with infrastructure (like traffic lights, speed signs, mapping etc) or have their software updated, they will be vulnerable to cyber attack.

But as I mentioned above, even is autonomous cars were "safer" than human-driven cars, that would not be good enough. Society will hold them to a massively higher standard of safety than human drivers. If a member of your family was killed in an accident with an autonomous vehicle, would it be good enough to have the courts say "the accident rate of these vehicles is only 5% of that for average human-driven vehicles" ?

Rhys

 

[h4yn0nnym0u5e]

If that's the same one as I saw a few days ago did you notice that when the car successfully steered around the pedestrian crossing the road he was on a zebra crossing?

True, but looking back (its about 40 minutes in) I'm not sure if it was under automated or manual control; just before that Professor Torr suggested the driver "back up, I'm not sure what's down here". I don't think the simulation would be using voice control!

That was one of the most impressive clips, actually, seeing the sheer number of elements in a live video stream that the software was analysing and classifying. Multiply that by 360 degree multi-spectral vision, and millions of hours training and that's really quite convincing. What do most human drivers get - one or two hundred hours?

I'm not sure which worries me more, there are plenty of accidents caused by humans, mm out of them in fact. There's no reason that driverless should be less safe than human drivers. Plenty of reasons why driverless can be safer

And will be, I'd imagine - anyone putting a driverless car on the road is going to be held to phenomenally high safety standards, presumably. Risk Analysis is the second thing I do as a medical software developer, as you can't analyse until you have a specification. Then, of course, the specification has to change.

Of course there will be initial problems, like the Tesla fatality and daviduk's terrifying experience, though in his case he did survive the overreaction of a very primitive single-sensor single-actuator system - all it could do is brake, any driverless car of Level 3 or above would have been able to pull over a bit, even if it was unnecessary. And which would we rather have, a cautious system or one that takes the attitude "they'll pull over a bit, they're bound to have seen me"? Because that's what a human driver frequently does...

Interesting times.

Cheers

Jonathan

 

[Targa]

True, but looking back (its about 40 minutes in) I'm not sure if it was under automated or manual control; just before that Professor Torr suggested the driver "back up, I'm not sure what's down here". I don't think the simulation would be using voice control!

That was a few seconds earlier when it tried to go down a one way street the wrong way.

 

[h4yn0nnym0u5e]

That was a few seconds earlier when it tried to go down a one way street the wrong way.

That's the one. Trouble with the way these things are put together is you don't know if "it" is human or machine, either then or later when the pedestrian crossing incident occurs.

 

[DavidUK]

I don't mind (although mine is a tank of diesel which is less flammable than petrol) as the fuel tank isn't under pressure.

Any thoughts on where the (elemental) hydrogen will come from, the efficiency of the process, the whole-life environmental impact of the vehicles and their fuel ?

I'm not saying hydrogen vehicles won't come in significant numbers, but the technology is not a panacea, there are downsides and my job requires me to be sceptical.

Don't get me started on autonomous road vehicles which scare me, particularly in the near future when there would be mixed driving (manned and unmanned vehicles together), dodgy technology, massive unknowns in terms of human behaviour. The autonomous vehicles would have to be not just "safer" than a human-driven vehicle, but almost accident-free or our glorious tabloid press will campaign to have them banned and their makers strung up from the nearest lamp-post.

Rhys

I have an issue with renewable electric sources too. I seem to recall someone saying "every action has an equal and opposite reaction." Taken to extremes, what effect does harnessing wind have on the weather?
I can't work out the downside to solar panels in this connection as I guess we're converting heat into energy then back into heat as the car's motors run. But will a household's solar panels be sufficient to run all its electric cars? We have three cars in ours.

My earlier point that autonomous accidents will increase road deaths by 100,000% agrees with yours about the press. It will be a short campaign as the government will debate it, briefly, and wonder how they were ever convinced it would work. Why all drivers aren't campaigning now to stop such ridiculousness is perhaps down to the threat squeaking up on us, ignorance of when the real threat will be here, i.e. fully autonomous cars, and typical British lethargy.

As for "automated or manual control", what will happen? Will my car see the truck coming and say "I have control" as it steers a little to the left, or will I feel the wheel turn and start fighting to get control back, in the process over compensating and steering into the truck's path?

And another thing... I ENJOY driving! Who are these cars for? People who can't drive? Well, not if they have to take control once in a while. People who want to watch Harry Potter films while travelling? Get a train.
If I'm going to be in a car, watching the world go by, why don't I hold the steering wheel and push a few pedals while I'm there? I guess it's down to whether you like driving or consider it a chore, or scary.

 

[thomsax]

I'm going to miss the rock lyrics about cars. Will ther be any lyrics about electric cars; Tesla, Zoe ..... ?

"They bought a souped-up jitney, 'twas a cherry red '53" ("You Never Can Tell" (Chuck Berry)

"She's a hot stepping hemi with a four on the floor
She's a roadrunner engine in a '32 Ford" ("Ramrod", Bruce Springsteen)

"Cadillac, Cadillac
Long and dark, shiny and black
Open up your engines let 'em roar
Tearing up the highway like a big old dinosaur" ("Cadillac Ranch", Bruce Springsteen)

"Beyond the Palace hemi-powered drones scream down the boulevard
Girls comb their hair in rearview mirrors" ("Born To Run", Bruce Springsteen)

"One of these early mornings, oh, you gonna be wiping your weeping eyes
I bought you a brand new mustang 'bout nineteen sixty five" (Mustang Sally", Bonny Rice)

Just a few songs ....

 

[Vetinari]

What about
One piece at a time. Johnny Cash

 

[h4yn0nnym0u5e]

I have an issue with renewable electric sources too. I seem to recall someone saying "every action has an equal and opposite reaction." Taken to extremes, what effect does harnessing wind have on the weather?
I can't work out the downside to solar panels in this connection as I guess we're converting heat into energy then back into heat as the car's motors run. But will a household's solar panels be sufficient to run all its electric cars? We have three cars in ours.

My earlier point that autonomous accidents will increase road deaths by 100,000% agrees with yours about the press. It will be a short campaign as the government will debate it, briefly, and wonder how they were ever convinced it would work. Why all drivers aren't campaigning now to stop such ridiculousness is perhaps down to the threat squeaking up on us, ignorance of when the real threat will be here, i.e. fully autonomous cars, and typical British lethargy.

As for "automated or manual control", what will happen? Will my car see the truck coming and say "I have control" as it steers a little to the left, or will I feel the wheel turn and start fighting to get control back, in the process over compensating and steering into the truck's path?

And another thing... I ENJOY driving! Who are these cars for? People who can't drive? Well, not if they have to take control once in a while. People who want to watch Harry Potter films while travelling? Get a train.
If I'm going to be in a car, watching the world go by, why don't I hold the steering wheel and push a few pedals while I'm there? I guess it's down to whether you like driving or consider it a chore, or scary.

Almost anything is better than fossil fuel, though renewables aren't 100% blameless - IIRC tidal power has some nasty side effects.

100,000% increase in road deaths would be 1.7M/year... I don't think it'd come to that, and strongly believe driverless will be demonstrably safer. Cars as-is would never be allowed now.

The Horizon is worth watching, if you can. Level 3 where the driver has to take over is a distinct non-starter.

Occasionally I enjoy driving, but commuting? No thanks, I'd rather get some work done. Take a train? Not an option, believe me...

 

[nigeld]

I'm sure there were similar discussions in the letters section of The Times about how the horseless carriage would never catch on. And long before that, people probably grumbled about how much less reliable horses were than oxen.

I am quite certain that road vehicles will be fully-automated one day. Aeroplanes and some trains already are. The question is how soon that day will come, and whether personal vehicles will still be common at that time. Once automatic vehicles are proved to be safer than human-driven ones, I guess the latter will be banned or uninsurable or both. The sooner the better in my opinion - humans are far too unreliable to be in control of high-speed armoured battering rams.

 

[jonf]

There is a pretty simple way to make driverless cars almost completely safe, which is to make ALL cars driverless. Pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists would also have to be taken out of the equation. All cars would then have to run to the same protocols. That's the only real way. A mixed economy of different driverless cars operating different systems mixing it with human driven machines is a vastly bigger technological challenge. However, the political challenge of telling us all we need to give up our keys is too great to overcome in the foreseeable future. I for one wouldn't accept it.

 

[Targa]

There is a pretty simple way to make driverless cars almost completely safe, which is to make ALL cars driverless. Pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists would also have to be taken out of the equation. All cars would then have to run to the same protocols. That's the only real way. A mixed economy of different driverless cars operating different systems mixing it with human driven machines is a vastly bigger technological challenge. However, the political challenge of telling us all we need to give up our keys is too great to overcome in the foreseeable future. I for one wouldn't accept it.

Almost completely safe? What about the points made about software errors and hacking.
Also in that programme referred to a couple of times they had the wonderful idea that because they were 'safe' they could be made of lighter materials because they wouldn't need the reinforced structures because they wouldn't crash.

 

[kevgermany]

Fact is, we don't need pilots for planes or trains. Most commercial pilots are simply updating a few parameters to get the plane in the air/to it's destination/on the deck. Yes they can be flown 'manually' but not really, it all goes through the computers to get the required actions to the control surfaces. Every time you take a commercial flight on a modern jet, your life depends on the computers AND the pilots. Both are capable of killing you. But more often it's the pilots. All the checks on weight, balance, fuel etc. are done by computer. Sure the pilots sign them off, but.... It's pretty much a once over cos the calcs are so complicated. We only have pilots because people won't accept change. Same with trains. Cars are at an early stage in development, but it'll come, and a lot faster than people think. Aircraft safety levels will have to be developed and built into the driverless systems, perhaps even higher - but it's not far off. Tesla are a long way down the road and others not far behind. One thing I've seen in my life is the hugely accelerating rate of change in technology and IT. We take satnav for granted now, but..... not so long ago it was a pipe dream. I never through cars would be able to steer down a road without some kind of buried cables/magnets for guidance. But they can. I never thought cars would be able to park themselves, but they can.

While I love driving, I can see there'll be a time when I'll have to stop due to age/infirmity. Same for all of us unless we die early. I'll be one of the first for a driverless car if I have to give up driving myself. I already trust my car to drive at Autobahn speeds with little more than me steering and watching for speed limits, it also warns me when I start crossing lanes without signalling, or get too close to the edge of the road. And I'll accept the risk of an accident in a driverless car - it'll be much smaller than with drivers. I guess most of us have been passengers in cars and been terrified and vowed 'never again' with that driver. Jonf's right - even with driverless cars, there'll still be a lot of accidents caused by people, you'll need to convert completely - or will you? My guess is that driverless will soon be a way of life, fully accepted and the sensors/monitoring and cameras built into driverless will prove the accidents were caused by others. And if the car did fail, there'll be very quick software updates to close the loopholes. There's a huge bad habit of blaming problems on computers. Usually it's the people behind them and the blamer hiding behind an excuse rather than take action to correct. I recently had 2 experiences like this on my last trip to the UK which left a very sour taste in my mouth.

Would I accept someone I loved being killed by a driverless car? About as much as I'd accept the person being killed by a driven car. Life is risky, but people want to pretend it's not. However I'd be comfortable in one once the safety was proven.

We can and do build computer controlled systems that are far better than any human can do. Sure there can be bugs, often critical ones. But.... Nowhere near as often as human errors. And human errors like lack of maintenance/incorrect maintenance cause many problems in these systems. Pig headed 'I know better' is another key factor.

 

[Targa]

After all that Kev you are still forgetting what a computer can't do and a person can, such as the simple example I gave earlier, how would a computer know if someone standing by a crossing intended to cross, they can only see a human shape near the side of the road.
As for planes it is very much simpler to fly than drive. Up, along following radio beacons, down. Pretty much covers it.

 

[Vetinari]

Thing is, with trains only speed and braking is critical, steering is not really a problem as sideways spacing is built into the track. With aircraft the the actual position in the air (apart from take off and landing) is not critical to within a couple of hundred feet as there is not much else up there to hit. With cars, accuracy needs to be down to inches on many of the roads we drive down.