Jules
I'm not a user but I can give you some thoughts/points as an ex-radio spectrum regulator.
The licence free channels are available on what is called the "non-protected/non interference" principle. That is users must accept interference from other authorised users (ie users of proper licence free equipment) but at the same time they must not cause interference to other authorised users. In theory there is protection from unauthorised sources, such as electrical equipment or the harmonics or intermodulation products of other radio users on different frequencies, or of completely unauthorised use. However, for a one off gig, if you do get interference from something that shouldn't be there, the chances of getting Ofcom to do anything are virtually nil. Licence free use is well down their list of priorities (things like interference to safety of life services comes first) and they have something like a 60% reduced staff from my day 10 years ago.
Permanent sites, professional users, theatre musical productions and broadcasters will use licensed channels. A West End musical may well have 20 or so channels plus some spares. There is more certainty about non interference from other mic users as the frequency use is planned (using protection ratios based on signal strength). There is still the risk of interference from unauthorised use (I recall a few instances where the studio feed to pirate broadcasters' transmitters caused problems) or something faulty (again, I recall a taxi firm's faulty transmitter interfering with a West End show) and even though the licenced use should get response from the regulator, in practice it still won't be immediate, which is why a few spare channels are kept.
You need to judge the risk yourself, but for one off use at gigs unless you are in very close proximity to other venues, you will probably get away with licence free kit. I believe most have a couple of switcheable channels so you have a work round built in. My son was a professional sound engineer for some years and when did many quite large on-off gigs and things like after show parties. He said they rarely needed anything other than the licence free channels.
Hope that's helpful.
YC