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COVID-19 Statistics

saxyjt

I have saxophone withdrawal symptoms
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Since the outbreak of COVID-19 made the headlines and became a concern, I've been kind of intrigued by the statistics. I like numbers. That's part of my job too, to analyse data and try to make them speak. But in the case of COVID-19 data, it's rather challenging to find some logic. One of the reasons is probably that no country reports the data in the same way.

Here is an example:

Coronavirus-DESAFR-200703.jpeg


Here are 3 countries currently grouped as they are close in number of cases, also similar numbers for Case /1M population and overall population, but everything else is so different. Obviously SA is not as 'mature' as Germany and France in terms of when it started to expand there but The death toll discrepancies is very hard to justify.

If you're curious, this is where this data comes from.
 

nigeld

I don't need another mouthpiece; but . . .
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There was a report on the BBC yesterday where a doctor said that the UK survival rate for seriously ill patients (i.e people in intensive care beds) is very, very much higher now than it was at the start of the outbreak. So the doctors have learned how to treat people more effectively. Maybe they got it right in Germany from the start.
 

Veggie Dave

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Part of the issue may be that Worldometer is not considered a reliable source of information.

"Their main focus seems to be having the latest number [of COVID-19 cases] wherever it comes from, whether it’s reliable or not, whether it’s well-sourced or not." Edouard Mathieu (Our World in Data - Wikipedia)
 

saxyjt

I have saxophone withdrawal symptoms
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Maybe they got it right in Germany from the start.
You see, there are a lot of MAYBEs, but nobody knows anything for sure! That's a really confusing period and the de-confinement as we call it here now is also rather disturbing. Interactions between people are not like they were. Many traditions that we took for granted, like offering coffee to visitors are banned for health reasons and we all have become selfish individuals, using our own stuff as we can't share anything anymore.

At least, music is not toxic! YET... :w00t:

So, let's enjoy playing. Let's share noise, sounds, melodies! :D
 

llamedos

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I clearly recall once having a book by some-one called HUFF entitled How to Lie with statistics. This fragment of my rapidly fogging memory has had the effect of making me somewhat cynical when trying to interpret anything of a statistical nature but it was fascinating to follow the light-hearted explanation of such things as the Gee-whiz graph where by manipulating the axes it could show things in an entirely different light.

I now suspect that the copy I thought had been "borrowed" when I was still working has fallen into parliamentary hands.

This is in no way a political comment but merely an attempt to take a rational view of a worrying time fur us all. I totally agree with saxyjtand will apply myseld diligently to the pursuit of music.

Stay Alert or whatever we are instructed to Stay at the moment.

Dave
 

jazzdoh

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I know you will never have this but if there was one agency for collecting and publishing world Covid19 statistics for every country you would see a different picture, some countries are not being honest with their figures so right now comparing country to country is flawed.
Only when this is over and countries are honest with data(some chance of that)will we see the bigger picture.
I know there are some countries that have dealt with this better than others and i hope that governments will admit to mistakes and learn from them so that it can be better dealt with in the future.
 

saxyjt

I have saxophone withdrawal symptoms
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There are many factors here. Evidently some countries tested more than others, reporting more cases as a consequence. France didn't have a testing program in place outside of hospitals. So unless you showed up with symptoms, you were not tested! The situation has not changed very much, despite the official communication...

Germany apparently tested a lot, outside of the hospital system so it might be wrong to assume they treated the desease better. What is true is that they have a much better capacity, 4 or 5 times what we have in France in terms of intensive care beds. That must have made a difference too.

As for honestly reporting the data, look at China. There is no way they had so few cases and death. But it is not a regime that is known for its transparency, is it?
 

Colin the Bear

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"Lies, damn lies and statistics." We don't know what we don't know. All we know is what they tell us. I suspect a mushroom policy is being used. Keep us in the dark and feed us ****. ;)
 

saxyjt

I have saxophone withdrawal symptoms
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Part of the issue may be that Worldometer is not considered a reliable source of information.
I don't think it is the problem. What they report reflects what governments around the world publish. It certainly isn't 100% accurate. But who can claim they have accurate data?

Regarding mortality, comparing figures year on year in a couple of years may reveal how bad it's been. Before that, it's anyone's guess. Me think! :rolleyes:
 

MikeMorrell

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I completely agree that it's difficult to compare Covid-19 statistics between countries. But I would assert that this is becoming easier as countries expand and publish testing results. Initially (March), testing in NL was focused on health care workers. Since then, much wider samples of the population have been tested. In NL, new Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths are now (thankfully) at an all-time low. The virus is of course still around but the spread of new infections is around 0.1%.

The US has also expanded testing and is is finding up to 20% positive cases
 

just saxes

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I wonder if, from outside the US, any of you are using the Johns Hopkins site's "dashboard." Here, in the US, the way to search for the most dependable statistics is through a search like, "Santa Clara County Covid Dashboard," just changing the location and sticking to counties. Most states in the US also have a state level "dashboard" that has slightly different numbers (usually due to differences in how results are logged) that is quicker to load and covers all or most counties within those states. The Johns-Hopkins dashboard logs them all, with far less detail. It also has been logging the virus abroad with a seeming minimum of f***ery since before the US outbreaks became news.


The useful thing to impart is: numbers and statistics are fairly consistent across all three of those source types (Johns-Hopkins, state-run sites, and local county-run sites), which implies that either they are mutually supporting (i.e. the numbers are really coming from just one source, or the same combination of sources) or that the reporting in general, as far as sheer numbers, is fairly realistic.

For sure, there is f***ery afoot in the numbers keeping, even in the US. Red states' (pro-Trump states') Covid dashboards that show longer term trends are harder to reach via Google searches as above. If you use the Google search I quoted for counties in Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, etc. -- even Arizona which is gradually trending "blue" -- it will take you a much longer time to find the info you're seeking than in California or a coastal, less rural, more populated, "blue" state. That could be due to incompetence or malevolence, we don't get to know.

Santa Cruz County, CA, where I live, seems to be fudging its daily numbers to spread out the higher totals over more than 1 day. I say that because while the day by day totals for the state-run site and the county-run sites are nearly identical (there is a reason for the small differences that has actually been reported in the SF Bay area paper), there is a lag between when new reports hit the county-run site and when they hit the state run site. Despite the lag, the number totals remain nearly identical, but the size of the daily spikes on the state-run site is more exaggerated than on the county run site.

Here, these days, if you want to be informed in a smaller market you have to track the stats yourself (Santa Cruz County, though only 20 minutes from Santa Clara County -- an epicenter for the early spread of Covid in the US -- has 273,000-odd residents, and is a smaller market). Small market papers like THE SENTINEL, our local paper, seem unequipped these days to report on Covid and analyze and report on daily local developments. They seem not to have the budget for their reporters to do actual useful interpretation and reporting of daily Covid spread and development.

Behind the scenes, though, unbeknownst to the public, it's clear that up to a certain point there are health department professionals doing a bang-up job of tracing and reducing outbreaks up to a certain threshold. We were getting small spikes for March, April, May and the 1st half of June, that did not eventuate in follow-up clusters. It seems like when you get a cluster, if they are going to create more clusters and exponential spread, you usually see the second wave spike from that first one 7-9 days later. We were maxing out at around 9 new cases in the county as a higher number for months, and then we got a sudden spike of 21-23 (depending on which "dashboard" you use), and then for the 1st time the wave that followed 7-9 days later was much more severe, with 5 straight days of increased numbers totaling 97 new cases in 5 days, and the denouement of that increase has not yet begun. The 1st logged case was March 5, so that's 5 days out of about 120 days (4.2% of the days) and 97 cases out of 455 total cases (about 21.3% of the total cases). 1/5th of the total cases in 1/25th of the length of the outbreak.

Based on this recent exponential spike being the 1st one that clearly was not effectively contained, it would seem that the ability of the tracers to shut down and minimize outbreaks to around 1:1, at least in this area, disappears somewhere in that gap between approximately 3 confirmed cases in 100,000 (per capita, total population) and 8 in 100,000. I do recognize that testing density and other social factors play into how those numbers (the per capita ranges) present, but the overarching factors for this area are: (1) the SF Bay area is one of the more media-rich, technologically advanced (probably the most tech-advanced area of the US, but less media-rich than WA DC or the more populous areas of the Eastern US coast), (2) one of the highest performing educational areas of the US, (3) one of the less government-unfriendly US constituencies, and for all the complains (4) one of the better running states in terms of bureaucracy. Californians are generally less paranoid of the government, less suspicious of "elites," and better educated areas of the US.

Anyway, I wonder if those who are paying attention to your "dashboards" locally, abroad, will find the Johns-Hopkins numbers seemingly more or less dependable than the outlets you're using, there.
 

aldevis

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Anyway, I wonder if those who are paying attention to your "dashboards" locally, abroad, will find the Johns-Hopkins numbers seemingly more or less dependable than the outlets you're using, there.
Very well made page
The only option I could not find that I find quite useful is the "7 days rolling average" that compensates for counting irregularities, like unregistered deaths on weekends
 

saxyjt

I have saxophone withdrawal symptoms
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I will check that resource @just saxes as I have a brother in CA somewhere near LA and many friends around the country.

My brother is a freelance tour guide, so he's been out of work for the last four months and the end of the crisis for tourism is not anywhere close...

I can't imagine what it's like in Places like Las Vegas. Actually I just watched a video on YouTube and was shocked to see no one wearing masks in a food distribution center for homeless. This is insane!
 

just saxes

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For me, the JH site actually isn't that useful -- it was VERY useful at the start of the pandemic internationally, in trying to understand what was happening, what the risks and likelihoods were, etc..

At this point, in the US, if you're lucky enough to live in an area where the county-provided pages are very useful, the county stats far outpace the JH pages for info that can help to inform decisionmaking.

For example: I just drove to my shop and decided not to work tonight because the body shop with which I share a parking lot is having a big party (no distancing, no precautions, lots of affectionate and brotherly interaction happening).

What informed that decision: I know that most of the workers live in Watsonville, and we're experiencing a blow-up where infections are spreading from Salinas (an agricultural community in Monterey County, to the South of Santa Cruz County), out into the broader Monterey County, directly to Watsonville, and spreading out into the rest of Santa Cruz County via these more intensely clustered cases. It's not something covered in media and it's not anybody's officially released information. It's a conclusion you can only draw if you've been following the progress of the virus via this page:


While also monitoring the info from Monterey County through these two pages:



The first of those two has very poor demographic info for individual counties, but good daily case/death info. The demographic info in both the Monterey County and Santa Cruz County pages is typical of CA State pages.

If you actually try to reach similar data, and types of data, in "red states," it is much harder to find. It is much harder to actually hit the pages themselves, i.e. to find them via Google searches.

That Monterey County page is the first one that comes up when I Google "Monterey County Covid Dashboard," from here (that may differ in a different state). When I try to find the same types of info, especially demographic breakdowns, let alone demographic breakdowns over time in a "red state" -- which I have done several times -- it's much harder. Rarely are the first Google hits those types of useful pages. Usually they're garbage graphs that don't even make any sense, let alone any useful sense. That is part of what is driving the horrifying US response to Covid.

There are a lot of other factors -- including that some of the causes of outbreaks not being contained, and hitting minority communities very hard, aren't even possible to discuss openly for a lot of Americans (I mean by this things that both lefties and righties would find problematic).

But the biggest part of the poor US national response to Covid in "red states," which is going to make all of them pay in horrible ways they will all insanely tend to deny (denial of reality is sort of the primary mode of people in "red states" right now -- just being real, right now, not caring if it's controversial or objectionable).

If it were easier to get to, more of those "red states" would be better informed. Sure, the idiocy of their leader is a factor, but if the information were easier to get to there would be less confusion. There are other major, major factors, but the structural problems as above are very much involved, IMO.

The virus doesn't care about the fictional divisions fascistic types of people think they have from "the underneath. The borders are ultimately fictional, and the virus is going to prove that to everybody, where they are able to see it, in hindsight, or not. Yes, the rich are better protected, but when you abandon care to the least of you, with a contagion, the result's going to be a horror show.
 
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